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BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Here's an alarming fact about Sacramento's housing market: About one of every five existing homes on the market is a 'short sale.' That means the home is worth less than the value of the mortgage, and the lender is willing to accept less than full repayment of the loan to avoid foreclosure, says Tracey Saizan, president of the Sacramento Association of Realtors. That, in turn, puts pressure on the remaining 80% of sellers, who have equity in their homes, to cut prices. The median price in the state capital, one of the most overheated metro areas during the real estate boom, fell 4.3% in December compared with December 2005. 'Sellers are having to give concessions and cut prices,' Saizan says. 'It's all about making the house show the best it can and aggressive pricing.' One in five sales is a short sale. That is pretty stagg

In Globally Contained Liquidity Crunch I pointed out that the Fed was providing temporary loans (as repos) not capital to the markets. While true I missed something. What I missed involves the collateral the Fed is willing to take for those short term loans. Mr. Practical was right there with The Fed's Path. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? I pointed out that the Fed was providing temporary loans (as repos) not capital to the markets. While true I missed something. What I missed involves the collateral the Fed is willing to take for those short term loans. It has now become obvious to me the path of the Fed. No, Mr. Bernanke is not going to be tough on markets. He is not going to give the medicine that is needed. He has chosen his path, the seeds of which were planted in his November 2002 speech about monetization (dropping dollars from helicopters). The Fed today injected $65 bln of repo

Given that Fitch is implicitly admitting that it is making rating decisions not on merit alone, but on perceived implications of what a rating change might do to the company being rated (see Any Credibility Left At Fitch?) what does Countrywide Financial have to lose by pleading downgrade could weaken business? BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Given that Fitch is implicitly admitting that it is making rating decisions not on merit alone, but on perceived implications of what a rating change might do to the company being rated (see Countrywide (CFC), the largest U. S. mortgage lender, said in a U. S. regulatory filing on Friday, that if its credit rating dropped below its current lowest rating, this would 'severely,' limit its access to the public corporate debt market and that could have repercussions on its business. A below investment-grade rating also would mean Countrywide would f

U. S. FEB. NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 1.27M V. 1.23M10:00am 04/26/05 U. S. MARCH NEW HOME INVENTORY 3.6-MONTH SUPPLY10:00am 04/26/05 U. S. MARCH NEW HOME INVENTORY DOWN 0.9% TO 433,00010:00am 04/26/05 U. S. MARCH NEW HOME SALES BEAT 1.19M EXPECTED10:00am 04/26/05 U. S. MARCH NEW HOME SALES UP 12% TO RECORD 1.43 MILLION Record New Home Sales....Were you impressed? I was not (more on this in an upcoming blog) but for now let's take a look at the market's reaction. Click on image for enhanced view. Click on image for enhanced view. If the Market was not impressed, should anyone else be? Looks to me as if it was all priced in if not more. Mike Shedlock / Mishhttp://globaleconomicanalysis. blogspot. com/

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Among her top priorities will be changing sentencing laws to shrink the number of people heading to prison, potentially saving the state hundreds of millions of dollars. She proposed the changes early this year, but the state's budget problems overwhelmed nearly everything else, leaving many of her proposals undone. 'It's not good public policy to take all of these taxpayer dollars at a very tough time, and invest it in the prison system when we ought to be investing it in the things that are going to transform the economy, like education and diversifying the economy.' Granholm also wants lawmakers to pass several of her education proposals pushed aside this year, including making kindergarten mandatory, requiring teenagers to stay in school until age 18 rather than 16, and setting aside more money to hire educators to train thousands of nurses

On Wednesday in Florida School Fund Faces Bankruptcy Over ABCP I made a prediction: 'The State of Florida will freeze withdrawals and come up with a hokey plan to fix things just as happened with ABCP in Canada.'So it was no shock that on Thursday Florida Halts Withdrawals From Local Investment Fund. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The State of Florida will freeze withdrawals and come up with a hokey plan to fix things just as happened with ABCP in Canada. Florida officials voted to suspend withdrawals from an investment fund for schools and local governments after redemptions sparked by downgrades of debt held in the portfolio reduced assets by 44 percent. The Local Government Investment Pool had $3.5 billion of withdrawals today alone, putting assets at $15 billion, said Coleman Stipanovich, executive director of the State Board of Administration, which manages the fund along with

Some people claim that Bailing Out is an art. Others think it is a science. I think it is a bit of both. Regardless of what it is, if you are in a doomed relationship, it is best to get out of it as quickly as you can. This advice applies not only to personal relationships, but also to the stock market. If a stock is not loving you, why should you love it back? When it comes to stocks, the sane way to get out of a doomed relationship is to sell and never look back. The stock won't be looking back either so there really should be no hard feelings.

The understatement of the month award goes to Garry Evans at HSBC for his comment on the Shanghai Composite Index 'I think the market had gotten a little too expensive'. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? China's leading stock index tumbled nearly 9% Tuesday, marking its biggest plunge in a decade, on concerns of more economic tightening measures as China's parliament prepares for its annual session next week. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks shares listed on the larger of China's two stock exchanges, tumbled 8.8% to 2,771.79. The declines rank as its biggest single-day drop since the benchmark plunged 9.4% on Feb. 18, 1997, which reportedly came after the death of reformist Communist Party elder Deng Xiaoping. Analysts said the declines, which came a day after the Shanghai Composite ended at an all-time high, were sparked by concerns the government may implement n

This post is a further continuation of the 'Saga of Sonnypage', an Atlanta area real estate broker who posts on my investment board the Motley FOOL. Previous Sonnypage highlights include:Lights Out in Georgia...on 2006/07/27Soft Market Debris....... on 2006/08/02Is the Fed irrelevant? ...on 2006/08/03Scared in Atlanta...........on 2006/08/06Time Keeps on Ticking..on 2006/08/27Two Anecdotes..............on 2006/09/15Friendship LostSonnypage 2007/01/12The origins of 'Friendship Lost' go back to a Sonnypage post made on the Motley FOOL on 2006/12/08. Let's pick up the story from Sonnypage:

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? 'The one-month slump in activity in today's January [housing] report is not enough to offset the more favorable picture painted by other housing indicators.' — Wrightson ICAP economists. Attributed by 'Taking all the new data into account, there is really no material change in our expectations for the U. S. economy since I last reported to Congress a couple of weeks ago. We are looking for moderate growth in the U. S. economy going forward.' Ben Bernanke - Attributed by 'These [emerging] markets, on a price-earnings basis, are not highly expensive, and there's no good reason for a massive correction.' - Mark Mobius of Templeton Developing Markets Fund. Attributed by 'The situation is pretty benign globally. There's 'No good reason' for a global stock sell-off'. - Mark Mobius of Templeton Developing Markets Fu

Following are some personal anecdotes on GM (fresh from today) as well as GM's latest sales numbers (May 2006).The rear blinker went out for the second time on my wife's Grand-Am. (Please don't ask why we have a GM. It was not my idea). It was nothing serious, just a bulb. But I do not recall this happening to any other car I have had, and certainly not twice in a few months. In addition the car's gas cap warning light has been on for months for no reason that I can see. I did not mention the gas cap problem at the dealership as I was in a hurry. Unlike a turn signal that does not work a faulty gas cap warning does not pose a safety hazard, so I decided to just let it be. As soon as I left, the seat belt warning light came on and stayed on for 10 minutes even though I had my seat belt on. That was a new problem. An unbuckle rebuckle operation did not help but after about 10 minutes, that warning light just went off on its own accord. The humorous part of this story is w

Androcles (Andy) is a poster on one of the stock message boards that I run. He is in fact a frequent thorn in my side. Unlike others who think hyperinflation is coming in conjunction with a housing crash (something I think has been successfully rebutted more times than I want to discuss), Androcles argues that the economy is stronger than anyone thinks on account of the underground economy, and that there will be no housing bust because of that. Let's tune in to what Androcles is saying:In America right now there are millions of workers doing more than one job (receiving some form of compensation) examples, firemen, special-duty cops, lifeguards moonlighting as bartenders, computer techs repairing PCs in their spare time. Heck, Mish does several himself full-time consultant, photographer who sells his work to magazines, and blogger who gets paid sales commissions. Does this mean that Mish is one worker or three? I'd say one. Some would say two...or even three. Millions of undoc

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Based upon market conditions and limited product availability, we are ceasing wholesale operations. We have stopped accepting new applications, and will have until the 12th of January to fund out the pipeline. We appreciate your patience as we undergo this transition. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you tak

The question on my mind today is: Can the Fed Control Prices? In Long-Rate Folderol Is Reaching Inflection Point Caroline Baum quotes Bernanke as follows: BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Fed Chairman Bernanke pretty much summed up the official party line in a March 30, 2005, speech, when he was one of seven governors on the board. The Fed has 'no direct control over the key interest rates and asset prices that jointly determine the extent of financial stimulus,' Bernanke said. Instead, policy makers are stuck setting 'an otherwise obscure short-term interest rate, the federal funds rate.' There you have it. Bernanke admitted that he has no control over asset prices or even key interest rates. But does he have control over The Fed's dual mandate -- maximum sustainable growth and price stability -- is fine for public consumption: It keeps members of Congress off its back. B

Flashback December 21, 1999Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)Following are some rather enlightening excerpts from that FOMC meeting. Note: FED meeting minutes are sealed for 5 years. The December 1999 meeting minutes were only recently made publicly available. Mr. Prell:Once again in recent weeks, the market has defied our notions of valuation gravity by posting an appreciable further advance. Moreover, it has done so in a way that seems to highlight the risk that it will continue doing so. I refer to the incredible run-up in “tech” and e-commerce stocks, some of which have entered the big-cap realm without ever earning a buck. To illustrate the speculative character of the market, let me cite an excerpt from a recent IPO prospectus: “We incurred losses of $14.5 million in fiscal 1999 primarily due to expansion of our operations, and we had an accumulated deficit of $15.0 million as of July 31, 1999. We expect to continue to incur significant...expenses, particularly a

The investment objective and allowable investments in Sentinel's 125 portfolio are rather interesting. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The 125 Portfolio is intended to provide Sentinel's FCM clients with a short-term investment alternative that combines safety of principal, liquidity and competitive yields compliant with the CFTC's Rule 1.25. An investment in the 125 Portfolio provides an indirect, undivided pro-rata interest in the underlying securities. In order to accommodate the liquidity needs of FCM clients, this portfolio will, typically, hold forty to fifty percent of its assets in the form of overnight repurchase agreements (repos). Special market conditions may dictate higher or lower percentages as prudent departures from the norm. Sentinel thought it could 'accommodate the liquidity needs of FCM clients' by holding a mere 40% to 50% of its assets in overnight

Goldman is attempting to lay the blame for poor results on too many managers making the same trades as this link shows: Goldman Says `Quant' Funds Need Different Strategies. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Goldman Sachs Group Inc. blamed its $3 billion in hedge-fund losses this month on too many quantitative managers making the same trades and said it needed to develop new investing strategies. [Mish comment: Too many Quant managers making the same trades? Uh... Wasn't that OK when momentum was flowing the other way? By the way, how is it that they were all making the same trades anyway, given that a quant fund is completely driven by computer programs'. Is every quant fund using the same program?] 'Longer term, successful quant managers will have to rely more on unique factors,' New York-based Goldman's fund - management division said this week in a report to clients

It seems there is a 'triple whammy' going on in some of the housing bubble states. Let's focus on California as a typical example. Housing is slumping, foreclosures are soaring, and consumer confidence in the economy is sinking fast. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? It seems there is a 'triple whammy' going on in some of the housing bubble states. Let's focus on California as a typical example. Housing is slumping, foreclosures are soaring, and Californians' consumer confidence in the economy took a dive in the second quarter of 2007, plunging into the pool of pessimism by 19 index points. Economist Esmael Adibi called the drop 'astonishing' - the steepest he's seen since 2002 when Chapman University's Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research of Orange County began sending surveys to California residents. 'There could be even more of a slump i

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The bank announced plans to sell another $14.5 billion in preferred stock and said it will cut its dividend 41%. The company also plans to sell noncore assets. After initially trading higher in premarket trading, shares were recently down to $28.15 from Monday's closing price of $29.06. New York-based Citigroup posted a net loss of $9.83 billion, or a loss of $1.99 a share, compared with a profit of $5.13 billion, or $1.03 a year earlier. Merrill Lynch & Co. raised $6.6 billion by selling preferred shares to a group including the Kuwait Investment Authority and Japan's Mizuho Financial Group Inc. after being battered by losses from subprime mortgages. The investors also include the Korea Investment Corp. and clients of U. S. money managers TPG-Axon Capital and T. Rowe Price Associates Inc., Merrill said in a statement today. The bank will pay a 9 p